Midyear Outlook: Inflation? Keep calm about bonds and carry on
Higher inflation and rising yields have some investors questioning whether they should stick with bonds. Undoubtedly, 2021 is shaping up to be one of the more challenging years for fixed income investments in recent times. Even so, reports of the bond market’s death are greatly exaggerated. It’s no time to listen to the bond bears: Owning bonds in this kind of environment remains as important as ever.
As our colleagues explained in their U.S. outlook and its international counterpart, economic growth is expected to be strong. However, that strength will not be uniform across regions and sectors. The recovery has global policymakers on both the fiscal and monetary side curtailing their unprecedented COVID-19 stimulus. For central bankers, in particular, that normalization process will likely be gradual. They must consider the risk of upsetting the financial market as the recovery unfolds.
Although inflation has hit the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, full employment remains far from its goal. The central bank has communicated that it will endure inflation above target for some time. It sees this target as an average, not a ceiling. Inflation averaged below that level until recently.
In the Fed’s June meeting, monetary policymakers shifted their projections for 2023 from zero to two 25 basis point hikes. We believe the central bank is likely to follow through accordingly, assuming that unforeseen negative factors don’t throw labor market and broader economic recoveries off track. The Fed could begin to slow, commonly referred to as “taper,” its asset purchases as soon as later this year.
Currently, temporary pandemic-driven supply shortages and pent-up demand dynamics appear to be driving higher prices. But the unprecedented level of fiscal and monetary stimulus paired with some structural changes such as demographic trends could result in more persistent above-average inflation.
Markets have accounted for increased probability of sustained inflation in recent quarters, which helped to push up longer term U.S. Treasury yields earlier this year. After recording an all-time low of just 0.51% last August, the 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 1.74% in the first quarter of 2021. Since then, the benchmark rate has settled in a range around 1.5% but remains well above 2020 lows.
Although yields may climb farther, we see their ascent as likely to be gradual. That’s partly due to our view that the Fed’s tightening will be measured. But we also see other factors at play. One example is demand by global investors. Many find U.S. yields relatively attractive even after hedging for their home currencies.
Despite the recent rise in inflation and yields, investors’ long-term perspective should not change. We believe, for those seeking balance, fixed income remains essential and should be approached four ways.
1. Get off the sidelines
As June began, investors had $4.6 trillion sitting in money market funds. Their jitters related to fixed income investing in this challenging environment are understandable. However, holding cash or cash-like investments amid higher rates of inflation may not be a favorable investment strategy. In fact, second quarter cash holdings missed out on positive returns in most bond sectors while taking a hit to purchasing power thanks to higher inflation. Investors willing to accept a modest amount of credit and interest rate risk could find high-quality shorter term bond funds a better option.
These funds, such as Capital Group’s Intermediate Bond Fund of America® on the taxable side and Limited-Term Tax-Exempt Bond Fund of America® on the tax-exempt side, prioritize capital preservation while providing a modest amount of income. Due to a focus on high-quality shorter term bonds, these funds aim to have minimal exposure to credit and interest rate risk.
Signs show U.S. consumers are getting out and spending
The return of principal for bond funds and for funds with significant underlying bond holdings is not guaranteed. Fund shares are subject to the same interest rate, inflation and credit risks associated with the underlying bond holdings. Lower rated bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal than higher rated bonds. Income from municipal bonds may be subject to state or local income taxes and/or the federal alternative minimum tax. Certain other income, as well as capital gain distributions, may be taxable. The use of derivatives involves a variety of risks, which may be different from, or greater than, the risks associated with investing in traditional cash securities, such as stocks and bonds.
Bond ratings, which typically range from AAA/Aaa (highest) to D (lowest), are assigned by credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and/or Fitch, as an indication of an issuer’s creditworthiness. If agency ratings differ, the security will be considered to have received the lowest of those ratings, consistent with the fund’s investment policies
American Funds Strategic Bond Fund may engage in frequent and active trading of its portfolio securities, which may involve correspondingly greater transaction costs, adversely affecting the fund’s results.
Methodology for calculation of tax-equivalent yield:
Based on 2020 federal tax rates. Taxable equivalent rate assumptions are based on a federal marginal tax rate of 37%, the top 2020 rate. In addition, we have applied the 3.8% Medicare tax. Thus taxpayers in the highest tax bracket will face a combined 40.8% marginal tax rate on their investment income. The federal rates do not include an adjustment for the loss of personal exemptions and the phase-out of itemized deductions that are applicable to certain taxable income levels.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index represents the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index represents the universe of investment grade, publicly issued U.S. corporate and specified foreign debentures and secured notes that meet the specified maturity, liquidity and quality requirements. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index covers the universe of fixed-rate, non-investment-grade debt. Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index is a market value-weighted index designed to represent the long-term investment-grade tax-exempt bond market. Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Municipal Bond Index is a market value-weighted index composed of municipal bonds rated below BBB/Baa. Bloomberg® is a trademark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. (collectively with its affiliates, “Bloomberg”). Barclays® is a trademark of Barclays Bank Plc (collectively with its affiliates, “Barclays”), used under license. Neither Bloomberg nor Barclays approves or endorses this material, guarantees the accuracy or completeness of any information herein and, to the maximum extent allowed by law, neither shall have any liability or responsibility for injury or damages arising in connection therewith.